Bitcoin has not reached a structural bottom despite recent price stabilization, according to analysis from CryptoQuant, which outlines two divergent paths forward for the leading cryptocurrency.
The analysis identifies a "black swan" scenario as the fastest route to a sustainable floor, where a market crash triggers forced liquidations that purge retail capital and reset the market within one to two months. The alternative path, termed the "Great Boredom," involves institutional investors holding firm while BTC trades sideways between $60,000 and $80,000 over the next year, allowing new capital to mature into long-term holdings. Under this scenario, an institutional market bottom would form gradually through the end of 2026 or 2027.
CryptoQuant expects continued volatility within the $60,000-$70,000 range as the market consolidates. Investors anticipating a major breakout are advised to exercise patience as the structural bottom formation remains incomplete, with no clear catalyst yet visible for either scenario.