Bitwise analysts have published research suggesting Bitcoin could appreciate to $1 million per coin within the next decade, contingent on modest market share gains in the global store-of-value asset class.
The thesis challenges the common objection that Bitcoin would need to capture over 50% of the current $38 trillion store-of-value market to reach that valuation—a scenario analysts deem implausible. Instead, Bitwise's model assumes the store-of-value market itself will expand. Gold, for example, grew from $2.5 trillion in 2004 to approximately $40 trillion today, representing annualized growth of roughly 13% over two decades. If that growth rate persists, the analysts project the total store-of-value market will expand to $121 trillion within ten years.
Under that scenario, Bitcoin would need to command just 17% of the expanded market to reach $1 million per coin—a modest increase from its current approximate 4% share. Bitwise argues this trajectory is supported by structural developments, including record inflows into Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds, growing institutional allocations, and adoption by sovereign wealth funds and university endowments.