Bubblemaps has identified six cryptocurrency wallets that collectively realized $1 million in net profits on Polymarket by wagering that the United States would strike Iran by February 28, with the positions established hours before the attacks occurred, raising questions about potential advance knowledge of military operations.
The wallets' profitable timing on the prediction market contracts suggests possible access to nonpublic information regarding the military action. Polymarket, a decentralized forecasting platform, allows users to trade contracts tied to real-world events, and the coordinated profitability of these positions across multiple accounts has drawn scrutiny from market observers and regulatory analysts.
In response to concerns about insider trading on prediction markets, U.S. Democratic Party members have introduced the BETS OFF Act, legislation that would prohibit government officials from participating in forecasting market wagers when they possess material nonpublic information. The bill represents the first congressional attempt to establish guardrails around speculation by officials with access to classified intelligence, addressing a regulatory gap as prediction markets gain mainstream adoption and trading volume.