Stephen Miran voted in favor of a 25 basis point rate cut as the Federal Reserve projects the median federal funds rate at 3.4% by the end of 2026, with policymakers signaling fewer rate reductions ahead than previously anticipated. The Fed's latest economic projections revealed officials expect core PCE inflation of 2.7% in 2026, undershooting the central bank's 2.0% target only by 2028, a significant upward revision from prior forecasts.
The Fed upgraded its 2026 GDP growth projection to 2.4%, up from earlier estimates, while maintaining its unemployment forecast at 4.4% for the same period. However, economic uncertainty remains elevated, with officials specifically flagging geopolitical risks tied to the Middle East situation as a continued headwind. Job growth has slowed materially while the unemployment rate has remained virtually flat, constraining the Fed's ability to prioritize additional stimulus.
The revised rate path signals a more hawkish stance than markets had priced in, with Fed participants embedding fewer rate cuts into their 2026 outlook and projecting terminal rates of 3.1% for 2027-2028. Sticky inflation expectations and persistent economic uncertainty have prompted officials to adopt a more cautious approach to further monetary easing, a shift likely to influence cryptocurrency valuations given crypto's sensitivity to Federal Reserve policy trajectories. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to address the outcomes in a press conference.